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Revenue Mobilisation: Trends and Challenges

MONTHLY Bangladesh Economic Update, October 2016

October 2016

The Unnayan Onneshan (UO), an independent multidisciplinary think tank, in its monthly publication of Bangladesh Economic Update October 2016 reveals that decline in the rate of growth in total revenue collection in recent times together with an extant of low tax-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is likely to slow financing for development.

The research organization finds that the rate of growth in revenue mobilization has declined since FY 2011-12. Actual mobilization of total revenue grew by 19.3 percent in FY 2011-12, whereas the rate of growth decline in the subsequent years and stood at 15.2 percent, 10.4 percent, 13.5 percent, and 13.8 percent in FY 2012-13, FY 2013-14, FY 2014-15, and FY 2015-16 respectively.

Furthermore, it is estimated that Bangladesh has the potential to increase the mobilization of its revenue up to 22 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) whereas the total revenue mobilization as percentage of GDP stood at 10.89 percent, 11.65 percent, 11.66 percent, 10.78 percent, and 10.26 percent in FY 2011-12, FY 2012-13, FY 2013-14, FY 2014-15 and FY 2015-16 respectively.

 

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External Sector: Recent Trends and Challenges

MONTHLY Bangladesh Economic Update, August 2016

August 2016

The Unnayan Onneshan (UO), an independent multidisciplinary think-tank, in its monthly publication of the ‘Bangladesh Economic Update’ August 2016 reveals negative growth in two major external sector indicators - export shipment and wage earner’s remittance - in the starting month of FY 2016-17 compared to that of FY 2015-16 coupled with low business confidence is likely to exert pressure on country’s external sector balance.

In addition, recent declining growth in inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) along with lack of expansion of productive capacity particularly in the manufacturing sector may adversely impact the overall performance of the country’s external sector, fears the research organizations.

Increasing export concentration of readymade garments (RMG) (from 83.9 percent in January-March 2015 to 84.6 percent in the corresponding period of 2016) together with declining growth in export earnings from RMG during the last couple of months, non-diversification of export markets, and lack of export competitive products may pose challenge to the performance of external sector, comments the UO.

 

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Lower ADP, Sluggish Private Investment and Macroeconomic Challenges

MONTHLY Bangladesh Economic Update, June 2016

June 2016 New

The Unnayan Onneshan (UO), an independent multidisciplinary think tank, in its June issue of Bangladesh Economic Update 2016 reveals that the low implementation status of public investment coupled with continued sluggish private investment may cause the current state of jobless growth to intensify.

 

Expressing its concern over the poor implementation of ADP during July-May period of the FY 2015-16, the UO shows that only 62 percent of ADP has been implemented during this period whereas for FY 2014-15, FY 2013-14, FY 2012-13 and FY 2011-12, the implementation status was 67 percent, 66 percent, 67 percent, and 70 percent respectively.

 

The think tank points out that during July-May of FY 2015-16, 75 percent of total ADP allocation for roads and highways division has been implemented compared to 76 percent for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. However, only 46 percent of the total allocation of ADP for bridges division has been implemented during July-May of FY 2015-16 compared to 44 percent during July-May of FY 2014-15.     

 

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Business as Usual Budget in Exceptional Circumstances Rapid Assessment of National Budget 2016-17 June, 2016

MONTHLY Bangladesh Economic Update, June 2016

june 2016The Unnayan Onneshan (UO), an independent multidisciplinary think-tank states that the proposed budgetary measures for the year of 2016-17 fall flat in addressing the exceptional circumstances of investment stagnation, infrastructural deficit, rising unemployment and escalating inequality amidst institutional fragility 

“The budget speech seems to lack providing prudent and farsighted solutions to the current challenges except it earmarks an ambitious target of uplifting private investment of uplifting private investment amidst lack of business confidence,” says the organization in its rapid assessment of the proposed national budget for the FY 2016-17.
The Unnayan Onneshan points out that private investment has been remaining stagnant and has stood at 22.07 percent of GDP in FY 2014-15 and 21.78 percent in FY 2015-16, while increase in public investment from 6.82 percent in FY 2014-15 to 7.6 percent in FY 2015-16 has not succeed to create much needed crowding in of private investment.
Observing the declining trend in national savings, the research organisation finds that total national savings stood at 29.23 percent of GDP in FY 2013-14, 29.02 percent in FY 2014-15, and 30.08 percent in FY 2015-16, and warns that such trend may induce national output to decline.

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Major Economic Challenges: A Pre-Budget Analysis

MONTHLY BANGLADESH ECONOMIC UPDATE, APRIL, 2016

MEU-January-2016The Unnayan Onneshan (UO), an independent multidisciplinary think tank, in its pre-budget issue of Bangladesh Economic Update, April 2016, calls for far-sighted actions toward formulating 2016-17 budget against the backdrop of poor implementation status of 2015-16 budget.  
The current size of the economy demands larger national budgets, but the country’s incapacity to efficiently implement the current budgets does not suggest a prospect of substantial increase in the size of national budgets in the coming years, comments the UO.

In addition, taking account of the poor implementation status of allocations for physical and social infrastructure, and high youth unemployment rate, the think tank puts particular emphasis on the move toward expanding productive capacity in the economy through ensuring quality investment in physical and social infrastructure and thus creating job for the youth .

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