Cyclone Aila

One Year on Human Suffering

Within two years of SIDR, when the coastal people of Bangladesh were struggling for the recovery of damages from it, another outrageous cyclone AILA struck the southern part of Bangladesh on 25 May 2009. Though Aila was a weak category cyclone by the definition, its destruction statistics outweighs the impacts of Super Cyclone ‘Sidr’ and brought in long-term sufferings for the southwestern people of Bangladesh. About 2.3 million people were affected by Aila and many of them stranded in flooded villages as they had no alternative to save themselves. The tidal surge height of about 10-13m dropped on the region and washed away the huge number of households, lives, livestock, crops and all other resources of the affected region. The entire southern coastal region is now in a distress of managing even the life sustaining food, drinking water, shelter and medicine. Even, a number of schools or other educational institutions still remain closed and the dropout rate is alarmingly on the rise. Now around 1 million people are still fighting against the rampant effect of slow poisoning of Aila in the Khulna and Satkhira District. Aila has damaged around 136690 households and 600km embankment in the affected areas and flooding of new area has become common phenomenon due to absent or damaged embankment. Moreover, 59 people died and 1509 injured during Aila even there is the evidence of suicide by male for the failure of managing food for his family. In a single upazila Shyamnagar total 194 ha of crop land was fully damaged by Aila which worth an estimated cost of 2.4 million BDT when about 64.98% households in this upazila depend on agriculture. It is important to notice that women and children are in the most vulnerable situation as they are to manage everything of the household and the many of the male members have migrated to earn livelihood leaving many evil consequences. Aila not only broke down the overall social harmonization but also resulted into a chaotic situation in those areas. Now people in this wide region pass their every single day with struggle, frustration, insecurity and sheer hopelessness; the entire humanity is weeping in darkness.

Climate Change and South Asia

A Briefing Note

The Bali Action Plan shines with lots of hopes for developing countries that in two years there would be a shared vision to combat global warming. In that plan, the shared vision was portrayed as a ‘long term cooperative action” which would include a “long term global goal for emission reduction”. This implies an action taken jointly with long term goals so that rising global temperature would be far below two degree centigrade. This 20C is based on the recommendations of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, according to IPCC, there is a strong likelihood that the temperature increase from prehistoric levels may overshoot 20C if drastic actions are not taken urgently. The significance of the shared vision is of utmost importance for planning any action. The ultimate objectives and principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) stipulate that any action taken must be in line with common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) and respective capabilities, and respective social and economic conditions.

Gender Issue in Climate Change Discourse

Theory Versus Reality

Gender refers to the social roles and relations between women and men, which include different responsibilities of women and men in a given culture and location. Even though gender has become one of the themes of analysis in development policy discourses yet it received little emphasis in climate change policies. By reviewing literature related to climate change and gender issue this paper finds that women are more vulnerable to climate disasters than men through their socially constructed roles and responsibilities, and their relatively poorer and more economically vulnerable position, especially in the developing world. In Bangladesh, gender inequalities with respect to enjoyment of human rights, political and economic status, land ownership, housing conditions, exposure to violence, education and health (in particular reproductive and sexual health) -- make women more vulnerable before, during and after climate change-induced disasters. Finally the paper argues that enhancement of institutional capacity to mainstream gender in global and national climate change and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) policies and operations through the development of gender policies, gender awareness, internal and external gender capacity and expertise, and the development and application of relevant mechanisms and tools should be prioritized for a pro-poor development in the realm of climate contingencies.

Future Climate Change and Moisture Stress

Impact on Crop Agriculture in South-Western Bangladesh

Despite outputs of many models for estimating the impacts of climate change on crop production vary widely due to multidimensional complications (Karim et al., 1999; Reilly, 1996; Reilly et al., 1996), generally the simulation results support the statement that global agricultural production might not suffer much, though regional effects will vary widely (Reilly et al., 1996a). The effects will be more acute in the subtropical and tropical (Karim et al., 1999) developing countries (Walker and Steffen, 1997) such as Bangladesh. The country is already a victim of hydro- meteorological variability, as it suffers from moisture stress during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods, when the Potential Evapo-transpiration (PET) stays lower than the available moisture in soil due to uncertainty of rainfall for the first period and insufficient rainfall for the second period (Karim et al., 1990). In both periods, rising temperature coupled with unavailability of rainfall hike up the moisture stress in soil leading the condition to an agricultural drought which eventually affects the major crops (e.g., HYV Boro, Aus, Wheat, Pulses, Sugarcane and potato) and cause significant damage in production where irrigation is limited.

Climate Change and Flow of Environmental Displacement in Bangladesh

This study depicts environmental displacement with the premise of increased frequency of natural disasters and the adverse impacts of climate change. Bangladesh is already experiencing recurrent floods, severe cyclones, water logging, salinity intrusions, droughts and river bank erosion which induce mass population displacement. There is no generally agreed definition and scientifically developed methodology to estimate environmental displacement. Proper development guidelines are yet to be adopted to protect the lives and livelihoods of the displaced people who have the right to expect safe lives, livelihoods, and a sustainable and prosperous future. The research findings reveal that on an average 25%, 3% and 2% populations are displaced from different natural calamities like floods, droughts and cyclones. The estimation of future displacement reveals that approximately 49 million, 63 million and 78 million people might be displaced in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. The growth of environmental displacement is likely to be closer to about half of total populations in 2020. This is very alarming for Bangladesh. To avert future crisis, the study proposes to adopt and update policy guidelines including action plans with a timeframe to keep track with the changing climate. Increased coordination among relevant organizations is also given emphasis to combat the dire consequences of environmental displacement.